If you grew up watching people camp outside big-box stores for a shot at a half-price TV, it can feel strange to walk into a mostly calm Black Friday aisle. The signs are still loud, the emails still scream “Final hours,” and yet the urgency feels a lot more manufactured than it used to.
On paper, the numbers look strong. US online shoppers spent more than 10 billion dollars on Black Friday and 13.3 billion dollars on Cyber Monday in 2024, both record figures that analysts expect to beat again this year. But record spending does not mean record value for you. When you look past the hype, a lot of Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals are either recycled, shallow, or available for weeks at a time.
The short version: good discounts still exist, but the idea that you need to rush out on one specific day is badly outdated.
From one day to a full season
For years, Black Friday worked because it concentrated deals into a single day. If you wanted the lowest price of the year, you either got up before dawn or you missed out. That tradeoff gave the day real weight.
That model has quietly broken.
Retailers now start “Black Friday” events in late October or the first week of November. Marketing teams openly talk about Black Friday as a multi-week campaign instead of a one-day event. One digital agency describes it as “a week-long, multi-channel test of relevance and agility,” not a single-day sprint.
The pattern shows up in consumer behavior data too. Analysts at Adobe found that growth in online spending was actually stronger on Thanksgiving and Black Friday than on Cyber Monday in 2024, in part because “early discounts were strong enough that many consumers felt comfortable hitting the buy button earlier.” Cyber Monday became more of a last-call reminder than a singular moment.
Other researchers see the same shift from the shopper side. A Florida State University marketing expert noted that many holiday buyers now begin shopping before November so they can spread out budgets and hunt for value over time rather than relying on one weekend.
When deals stretch across weeks, the logic of lining up in the cold or refreshing a website at midnight falls apart. You still have sales, but the pressure to act in a tiny window is more marketing story than reality.
The uncomfortable math: many “deals” are not actually deals
The bigger problem is that a lot of headline Black Friday offers are either mediocre or flat-out fake.
WalletHub’s 2025 analysis of thousands of items found that about 36 percent of Black Friday products will “offer no real savings” compared with their pre-Black Friday prices. That includes items that are the same price as earlier in the fall, or even more expensive on Black Friday than they were a few weeks before.
Their 2024 study told a similar story. Roughly 41 percent of Black Friday items offered no additional savings compared with normal pricing, and around a quarter were actually more expensive on Black Friday than during the weeks leading up to it.
Consumer watchdogs see the same tricks when they track prices over longer periods. A large review by UK group Which? found that more than 80 percent of items checked were the same price or cheaper at some other point in the year, and that none of the tracked products hit their absolute lowest price on Black Friday itself.
The tactics are familiar:
• Temporarily inflating the “original” price so the discount percentage looks big.
• Quietly raising prices in October, then “slashing” them back to normal in November.
• Advertising a doorbuster that exists in tiny quantities while steering you to a full-price alternative once it sells out.
As one WalletHub analyst put it, “many Black Friday items offer no real savings compared to their usual prices,” which means the burden shifts to you to separate genuine markdowns from clever formatting.
Inflation, tariffs, and smaller true discounts
Even when a discount is real, the value may not feel like it used to. Several forces are working against you in the background.
First, inflation and tariffs keep base prices elevated. Recent reporting from Bloomberg and others notes that tariffs introduced in 2024 and 2025 have nudged prices higher on many imported goods right as inflation had started to cool, which makes “30 percent off” less impressive than it looks on the sign.
Second, income growth has not kept pace. An analysis by the JPMorgan Chase Institute found that inflation has effectively reset income gains to levels similar to the slow recovery that followed the Great Recession, leaving many households with less real spending power headed into the holiday season.
Survey work backs up that mood. PwC’s 2025 Holiday Outlook found that US consumers expect to cut seasonal spending by an average of 5 percent compared with 2024, the first meaningful drop since 2020, and 84 percent say they plan to cut back on some discretionary spending over the next six months.
Put plainly, the discounts you see must fight against higher starting prices and tighter budgets. That is part of why shoppers in recent surveys say they are being pickier about what they buy and more skeptical of doorbusters that do not deliver serious value.
Record sales do not mean you should sprint to the store
It is easy to look at Cyber Monday and assume that big numbers equal big savings. Cyber Monday 2024 set a new record at 13.3 billion dollars in US online sales, up 7.3 percent from the year before, and 2025 is on track to beat that record again.
But Adobe’s own data shows that deals do not evaporate at midnight. In its recap of the 2024 season, Adobe noted that while the steepest average markdowns clustered around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, “deals are expected to linger in the weeks ahead,” with discounts in the mid-teens through December on categories like computers, toys, electronics, and apparel.
At the same time, shoppers are adapting. An Investopedia breakdown of Adobe data pointed out that many Americans had already been holiday shopping for weeks by the time Cyber Monday arrived, and that people were spending more money but on fewer items because of higher prices. Cyber Monday has become the last click on a long journey, not the only chance to buy.
Retail industry leaders admit the focus has shifted from a single day to the full season. The National Retail Federation expects 2025 holiday sales to cross one trillion dollars for the first time and describes the Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday stretch as a key indicator of consumer health, but not the sole driver of it.
In this context, the traditional idea of panic buying on a specific Monday makes little sense. The market is telling you that if you miss a marginally better price today, you will likely see a similar offer later in the season, especially on mainstream electronics, toys, and apparel.
The fading role of in-store “doorbusters”
For many people, the question is less “Are there any deals?” and more “Is it worth getting in the car at 4 a.m.?” Increasingly, the answer is no.
Online shopping has swallowed a big share of holiday sales, especially for higher income households, which are much more likely to shop online than in stores. As a result, analysts have watched in-store traffic plateau or slip even while online revenue hits new highs. Fast Company noted that Cyber Week 2024 broke online records while physical store visits on Black Friday fell almost 2 percent year over year.
Meanwhile, the most aggressive discounts often live online too, where retailers can adjust prices hour by hour without rewriting paper circulars. Shipping times, store pickup, and easy returns have all improved to the point where the tradeoff of crowds and stress for a small extra markdown rarely adds up.
Retail strategists are blunt about the structural shift. A Forbes analysis of Black Friday’s role in 2024 concluded that “Black Friday is less important than it used to be” as the health of retail depends more on the full quarter than on a single weekend.
If the big doorbuster TV is available online at the same price, and many “in-store only” deals are smaller than they look, the premium you pay in time, gas, and stress for being first through the door is hard to justify.
Psychology, FOMO, and the illusion of scarcity
None of this has stopped retailers from leaning hard on urgency. All-caps subject lines, countdown timers, and “today only” copy are designed to trigger your fear of missing out, even when the same price has been available since early November.
Studies of recent holiday shoppers show that people are increasingly aware of this gap. Deloitte’s 2025 survey found that while more people planned to browse or shop during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, average planned spending for the period fell about 4 percent year over year, the first decline in five years. Shoppers who planned to cut back largely blamed high living costs and financial constraints.
At the same time, editorial writers and retail analysts have started telling shoppers to relax. A piece for Fast Company described Cyber Week’s record numbers but warned that prices were not dramatically better than last year, and that early promotions in October and November left fewer “wow” deals for the main event.
In other words, the feeling that Black Friday and Cyber Monday are less special is not in your head. The structure of the season really has changed.
How to shop smarter in a stretched-out sale season
If you still want to take advantage of holiday discounts, you do not need to boycott Black Friday or Cyber Monday. You just need to change how you approach them.
A practical strategy looks more like this:
- Decide what you actually want first
List the specific items or categories you care about instead of wandering through pages of “deals.” Research normal prices in October or early November, then set a personal target, for example 20 percent off a laptop, 30 percent off outerwear, 40 percent off small appliances. - Focus on categories where discounts tend to be real
Historical data from Adobe and WalletHub suggests that toys, big-ticket electronics, some appliances, and certain types of jewelry and apparel often see genuine double digit markdowns. Meanwhile, many midrange gadgets and accessories only get modest cuts that reappear at other times of the year. - Treat “doorbusters” as a bonus, not the plan
If a limited-quantity doorbuster happens to line up with something on your list, great. But do not anchor your whole day on it. The odds that stock, timing, and real savings line up perfectly are much lower than the ads suggest. - Use tools that track prices over time
Browser extensions and price-tracking sites can show you a 60 or 90 day history for many items. If you see that a “sale” price has been the norm for months, you can pass without feeling like you missed something. - Protect yourself from pressure tactics
Set a total budget for the season before the sales start. If an offer requires you to open a store card on the spot or sign up for buy now, pay later just to get the advertised price, ask whether the discount is worth adding more complexity to your finances in a year when rates and household costs are already high. - Remember small businesses and off-peak timing
Local shops, small online brands, and even thrift stores are now running their own Black Friday or “Small Business Saturday” events, sometimes with clearer pricing and more personal service. Shopping during quieter times of day or later in the weekend can give you similar prices with less stress.
The real value is in control, not chaos
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still huge for retailers, and record sales figures show that many people will keep treating them as shopping holidays. But the old story that you need to rush out, fight crowds, and panic-buy because “these prices will never come back” does not line up with how modern promotions work.
Experts across the industry now describe Black Friday as one peak inside a longer season, and Cyber Monday as the last reminder for people who have already been shopping for weeks. At the same time, watchdogs and financial analysts keep finding that a large slice of advertised “deals” offer no real savings at all.
You are not wrong to feel that the rush is less worth it than it used to be. The smartest move today is to ignore the countdown clocks, know your numbers, and use the extended season to your advantage instead of letting it use you.
